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Sunday, December 22, 2024

Updated top house districts most likely to flip

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Brian Calley President and Chief Executive Officer at Small Business Association of Michigan | Official website

Brian Calley President and Chief Executive Officer at Small Business Association of Michigan | Official website

Republican Melody Wagner has run for Marquette’s state House multiple times. Although not predicted to win the primary in her fifth attempt, her vote counts have increased significantly over the years. In 2020, Trump lost this seat by a narrow margin of 100 votes.

In the 46th District, a young Democrat who previously faced controversy garnered 46% of the vote in 2022. President Biden won most Jackson precincts in 2020, and current Rep. Kathy Schmaltz (R-Jackson) may face challenges if Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney puts in substantial effort.

Republicans are optimistic about the 83rd District due to Wyoming's swing status and Tommy Brann’s past successes. However, the Democratic portion of Grand Rapids poses a challenge for Republicans.

In the 58th District, Utica Councilmember Ron Robinson provides Republicans with a candidate experienced in public speaking. Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) faces scrutiny over his support for a controversial hate crime bill.

Rep. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte) is expected to face significant Republican opposition in the 27th District but has been actively campaigning since December.

Former Rep. Tim Sneller is running in a less Democrat-friendly district than his previous one. He will need strong performances in key areas to challenge Rep. David Martin (R-Davison).

House Agriculture Committee Chair Reggie Miller (D-Belleville) did not receive an endorsement from the Farm Bureau, which went to her Republican opponent Dale Biniecki instead.

The GOP primary winner in the 31st District may need significant financial backing to compete against Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City), who has already raised substantial funds.

In the 28th District, Democrats favor special education teacher Janise Robinson against incumbent Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown), questioning Thompson's campaign strategy.

Finally, Republicans might face difficulties in traditionally conservative West Michigan's 86th House District due to recent political dynamics and Democratic spending on nominee Abby Klomparens.

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