Great Lakes Wire

When we last reviewed the list of House seats most likely to flip, Democrats were buoyed by Kamala Harris being named the party’s new nominee. Since then, polls have stabilized. In 18 publicly released presidential polls in Michigan since Harris became the nominee, her support has ranged between 51% and 46%, while Republican Donald Trump’s support is between 49% and 46%, with few exceptions.

House Democrats face challenges related to Trump’s support distribution. They previously won seats due to Proposal 3 and a noncompetitive governor's race in 2022, but these will be harder to defend this year with a motivated Republican base eager to vote for Trump.

Democrats have more funds than Republicans but are spending heavily on Metro Detroit broadcasts, which are expensive and harder to target. Republicans seem to focus on digital ads, texts, and mail, which are cheaper and easier to target specific demographics.

In Lansing, there is increased discussion around races. Surrogates have visited about 20 House districts that could potentially flip in this election. Common themes indicate who might be at risk.

Here is an updated list of districts most likely to flip:

1. **27th District (D to R)**

Rep. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte) and her allies are not spending or reserving $5.7 million according to AdImpact because they believe she is safe. There are many Trump signs in the area, and Rylee Linting is considered one of the hardest-working non-incumbents for the Republicans.

2. **57th District (R to D)**

Indian Americans make up 9.2% of Troy's population. With Harris possibly becoming the first person of Indian heritage as president, their turnout is expected to help Aisha Farooqi in a race that has gained Republican attention.

3. **83rd District (D to R)**

Tommy Brann’s candidacy keeps this race relevant; his known background makes it hard for opponents to label him negatively despite differing views on abortion.

4. **57th District (D to R)**

Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) has received $1.3 million from Democrats after some delay in funding his campaign against Ron Robinson, another hard-working Republican candidate.

5. **109th District (D to R)**

The Democratic attempt to portray Karl Bohnak as a conspiracy theorist may backfire due to his local reputation as a long-time weather forecaster who lost his job over COVID-19 vaccine refusal.

6. **54th House District (R to D)**

House Democrats are investing $1.34 million into Shadia Martini's campaign against Rep Donni Steele (R-Lake Orion), focusing on Steele's stance on abortion based on past voting patterns favoring Proposal 3.

7. **46th House District (R to D)**

This district should have remained Democratic initially; however, Harris’ nomination might mobilize Oakland County voters more than suburban Jackson County voters who lean towards Trump.

8. **28th House District (R to D)**

Janise O’Neil Robinson and the House Democratic Fund are investing $1.5 million here despite initial optimism waning as Rep Jamie Thompson appears stable among her constituents.

9. **31st House District (D to R)**

Republicans outspend Democrats in Traverse City and Leelanau County where Lisa Trombley shows strong signage presence despite Rep Betsy Coffia raising significant funds this cycle.

The article was provided courtesy of MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter.

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