Great Lakes Wire

Democrats are showing increased strength in recent special elections compared to the performance of Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 elections. "The elections-focused publication and podcast program, The Downballot, reported that in 16 special elections for Congress and state legislatures, Democrats have won 11 of them." This gain spans states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Connecticut, Maine, Delaware, and Virginia, between January 7 and April 1.

In comparison to Harris' performance in these areas during the 2024 elections, Democrats increased their support by 11.4 points on average. They also saw a 7.6 percent growth compared to Joe Biden's performance against Donald Trump in 2020.

In Michigan, there is growing Republican criticism directed at Governor Gretchen Whitmer for not calling a special election in the 35th Senate district. This district was vacated by Kristen McDonald Rivet, who was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives after winning by a significant margin against Paul Junge.

If Democrats fail to retain the 35th Senate seat, the Michigan Senate would face a 19-19 split, with Democratic Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist II holding the tie-breaking vote. Whitmer has become the first governor in over thirty years to delay calling a special election for more than 75 days, provoking Republican efforts to pressure her with slogans like “Missing…District 35 State Senator” and “Free The 35th.”

The 35th Senate district's political landscape shows varied support, with Trump winning in Midland, Saginaw, and Bay counties. McDonald Rivet lost Bay County to Junge in their Congressional race but managed to win Saginaw County and lost narrowly in Midland County.

Statewide polling by Marketing Resource Group (MRG) LLC, conducted from March 24-28, reports Whitmer's approval at 57 percent, while Trump's stands at 42 percent. MRG owner Jenell Leonard explains Whitmer's high approval by stating, "there is an art and a science to politics," noting her recent cooperative tone towards Trump and her need to work with a Republican-majority Michigan Legislature.

Leonard points out the Democrats' struggle in 2024, despite resources and favorable polling, due to a disconnect on major voter issues like jobs, economy, and inflation. She attributes this to their failure to differentiate from Biden, saying, "Well that doesn’t connect."

Regarding the 35th Senate district, Leonard emphasizes the importance of candidate quality, highlighting Trump's appeal to the blue-collar and union voters. McDonald Rivet's success serves as an example of a resonating candidate.

"Especially in that region, it’s just a fascinating area, because Trump … does resonate well with the blue-collar voter, the union voter," Leonard noted, emphasizing the role candidate appeal will play in the outcome.

Article courtesy of MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter.