Great Lakes Wire

Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a slight lead in Michigan over former President Donald Trump in the first statewide poll following Tuesday night’s debate. However, the race remains within the margin of error, according to a poll conducted by Mitchell Research and Communications commissioned by MIRS.

While a 56 percent majority of 580 likely voters said they thought Harris won the debate (29 percent said Trump did), Harris holds a 47 percent to 46 percent lead over Trump when considering the entire field. The head-to-head is tied at 48 percent each.

The survey found that the debate changed few people’s minds. Overall, 90 percent said the debate did not change their minds on who they plan to vote for, with an additional 3 percent now planning to vote for Harris and an extra 5 percent claiming they will vote for Trump.

“People are so deeply entrenched on both sides. Nothing is happening except at the margins,” Mitchell said.

While Trump didn’t perform as well as Harris on Tuesday night, Mitchell noted that Trump didn’t “lose” the debate like President Joe Biden lost his earlier this summer.

“He didn’t [do] so badly that his partisans are going to switch sides…this remains the closest race in modern polling. Nobody has been up more than 5 percent. It’s right on the margin every time. It’s unbelievable. And it’ll stay that way all the way to the end despite all the money that is being spent on this race.”

The margin of error is +/- 4.06 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

Other highlights from the poll include:

- A 43 percent plurality support Israel in its conflict with Hamas; eight percent support Palestinians, 33 percent support neither side, and 17 percent are unsure.

- A 36 percent plurality say the economy is their top issue, followed by threats to democracy (26%), border/immigration (18%), abortion (9%), healthcare (4%), other issues (3%), climate (2%), foreign affairs (2%), and crime (0%).

- A 49 percent plurality trust Harris to most faithfully follow and uphold U.S. law and Constitution; another 47% believe Trump would uphold U.S. law.

- A majority of voters watched the entire debate (57%) while only seven percent did not watch any part of it.

- A plurality believes military aid should be sent to both Ukraine and Israel (29%). Twenty-four percent oppose sending aid to either country, sixteen support aid solely for Ukraine, thirteen solely for Israel, and eighteen remain unsure.

- Favorability ratings show Harris at 48% favorable/50% unfavorable and Trump at 45% favorable/53% unfavorable.

Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter

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