Great Lakes Wire

A common theme this campaign cycle is the lack of yard signs or mailers in normally competitive areas of the state. Whether it’s Downriver River, Macomb County, Oakland County, Ingham County, or Kent County – areas where one would expect to see some evidence that an election is around the corner – there’s noticeably little.

Absentee ballots have been out for weeks. Early voting began on July 27th.

Yet, in many communities, you wouldn’t know it. Even with 35 House incumbents facing a primary, few are facing a competitive challenge. An active social media account hasn’t won many people a House seat yet, but a remarkable number of candidates are relying on exactly that.

Still, MIRS has flagged 10 seats in which the winner of the primary has a realistic chance against the incumbent.

We’ve called these Step 1 Primaries in the past because Step 2 would be winning the general election against an officeholder who doesn’t face a primary. The races we’ve flagged are listed below numerically:

27th House District– One observer described Rylee Linting as an “All-American” candidate, an enthusiastic fresh face who may be pulling away in Grosse Isle, Trenton and Wyandotte. Multiple sources have the Michigan Republican Party’s Youth Chair working these Downriver communities as hard, if not harder than former Gibraltar City Councilmember Cody Dill in a competitive Republican primary race between two candidates in their early 20s.

Linting has the support of neighboring Rep. James DeSana (R-Carleton) while Dill has the Michigan Trump Republicans in his corner. A third candidate, Realtor Maria Mendoza Boc, has the local Farm Bureau’s support, but this doesn’t mean as much in this working-class suburban district as it would in rural Michigan. Mendoza Boc was also slow out of the gates and isn’t expected to finish higher than Linting or Dill. Mendoza Boc and Dill also hail from Gibraltar, meaning they could be cutting into each other’s base.

38th House District– It’s Kevin Whiteford against George Lucas Part 2 in the Republican primary, except this time Troy Rolling isn’t around to pull Berrien County support away from Lucas, a longtime realtor in the area. Lucas lost in 2022 by 189 votes to Whiteford. This time, Lucas is attempting to connect more in Whiteford’s Allegan County stomping grounds. Likewise, Whiteford is trying to make inroads in Berrien County along the lakeshore. Both have reportedly hit more than 15,000 doors and both are putting up signs. Whiteford is strategically urging people willing to put up his yard signs to put up a Trump sign as well, according to one source. Lucas has benefited from at least four mailers and endorsements from Americans for Prosperity, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce and the Association of Builders and Contractors. Whiteford has support from Michigan Right to Life.

Lucas and Whiteford each received support from the Michigan Manufacturers Association and Citizens for Traditional Values. Each one believes they’re best positioned to beat Rep. Joey Andrews (D-St. Joseph), who will not have League of Conservation Voters (LCV) campaigning for him as hard due to his sponsorship of data center legislation. This race was close before and is expected to be close again.

44th House District– Not much competition here as Calhoun County Commissioner Steve Frisbie seems poised for victory despite first-time candidate Alexander Harris’ efforts. Frisbie’s campaign experience shows through with endorsements from Americans for Prosperity, Right to Life and business groups among others.

48th House District– Brian Ignatowski runs a traditional campaign with backing from Livingston County Sheriff Mike Murphy and congressional candidate Tom Barrett among others against Tawn Beliger who is supported by grassroots organizations including former Sen. Patrick Colbeck's Utility Meter Choice for Michigan.

55th House District– Two Democratic men with military backgrounds vie against Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills). Trevis Harrold holds an edge over Alexander Hawkins due to earlier entry into the race and significant organized labor support.

57th House District– Aisha Farooqi initially seemed unchallenged until Tyler Fox entered making it competitive within Democrats seeking nomination against Rep Tom Kuhn (R-Troy).

58th House District– Ron Robinson appears favored over Roger Goodrich running professionally organized campaigns challenging Rep Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights).

61st House District– Russ Cleary gains momentum over Robert Wojtowicz showcasing more visible energy towards campaigning featuring IT consultant John Grossenbacher also participating actively within Republicans competing together under this district representing Chippewa Valley School Board member constituency role previously held by Wojtowicz himself now contesting State-level representation potentially ahead alongside rival contenders mentioned herein above throughout detailing aforementioned specific cases respectively considered further discussed herein following subsequent references accordingly included therein ultimately summarized briefly thereafter concluding overall presentation provided thus far inclusive detailed descriptions relevant contextual background information regarding said contests highlighted therein throughout documentation presented comprehensively summarizing essential aspects integral understanding complete overview effectively communicated herein succinctly 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