Great Lakes Wire

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By now, it is clear that there are few competitive big races heading into Tuesday’s primary election.

Mike Rogers and U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) will likely be the U.S. Senate nominees. Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and Paul Junge are expected to advance in MI-8, while Carl Marlinga is set to face U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) again in MI-10.

Either Paul Hudson or Michael Markey will win the Republican nomination in MI-3, but neither has significantly differentiated himself from the other.

The drama lies in some interesting subplots across the state, which MIRS lists for you to follow:

1. Is it better to have money or endorsements in Detroit?

U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) and his allies have spent over $6 million in his bid for a second term against Detroit City Councilmember Mary Waters, who has spent just over $33,000 on paid media but has support from Mayor Mike Duggan, Wayne County Executive Warren Evans, and numerous Black leaders.

It resembles U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) versus Brenda Jones in 2020 when Jones positioned herself as the Black candidate against the well-funded incumbent Tlaib.

2. Who will get more votes, Sherry O’Donnell or Justin Amash?

This tests libertarian sentiment among Michigan Republicans as Amash has not run an active campaign while O’Donnell has garnered grassroots conservative support with endorsements from figures like Trucker Randy Bishop, Ted Nugent, and Dave Agema.

O'Donnell's vote percentage represents the ceiling for underfunded grassroots candidates running statewide in Michigan compared to whatever residual support Amash retains from West Michigan libertarians.

3. Can mainstream Republicans take back the party?

In races where former President Donald Trump hasn't been involved, local State House races can collectively indicate trends within the party.

The reelection campaigns of Minority Leader Matt Hall (R-Kalamazoo), Rep. Neil Friske (R-Charlevoix), Rep. Matt Maddock (R-Milford), Rep. Josh Schriver (R-Oxford), Rep. Gina Johnsen (R-Lake Odessa), and Rep. Cam Cavitt (R-Cheboygan) could reveal if professional doorknockers help "liberty" candidates succeed over mainstream GOP contenders backed by PACs connected to Consumers Energy.

4. Will new state House redistricting lines affect incumbents?

Although no incumbents were placed into the same district due to new state House lines, at least three incumbents face significant challenges within their newly defined boundaries:

Rep. Regina Weiss (D-Oak Park) faces Crystal Bailey; Rep.Mai Xiong(D-Warren)is competing against Richard Steenland; and Rep.Mike McFall(D-Hazel Park)is up against Jim Fouts' legacy as mayor of Warren.

5.What impact will Palestinian issues have on elections?

Aisha Farooqi,a pro-Palestine rally leader,is contesting her primary again.Ziad Abdulmalik,supported by AMPAC,Yemeni American Political Club,and others,is challengingRep.Alabas A.Farhat(D-Dearborn).Ahmed Ghanim isn't expected to beatU.S.Rep.Haley Stevens(D-Birmingham),but his vote percentage may be telling in a heavily Jewish district.

Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter

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