Great Lakes Wire

A recent poll of Michigan voters reveals a tie between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, each securing 43% in a two-way race. However, the poll indicates that 57% of Michigan voters do not believe the president is "capable" of serving another four-year term. The skepticism extends to independent and undecided voters, with 63% from each category expressing doubts about Biden's mental capacity.

The survey, conducted by North Star Opinion Research, points to dissatisfaction among Michigan voters with Biden's leadership. Among undecided voters, 60% disapprove of Biden’s economic stewardship, and these voters overwhelmingly believe that the country is on the wrong track by an 83% to 9% margin. The research also found that by a significant margin — 72% to 22% —Michigan voters believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction.

The research was commissioned by the League of American Workers (LAW), an organization dedicated to examining economic public policies affecting American workers. Steve Cortes serves as LAW's founder and president.

According to the LAW survey, respondents expressed reservations about Biden with regard to Vice President Kamala Harris, who would succeed him if he were unable to complete his full second term. By a 48% to 37% margin, voters indicated they are less likely to support Biden in the 2024 election because Harris would succeed him. This margin among independent and undecided voters stands at 50% to 30%, and 44% to 17%, respectively. Among Democratic voters, 10% say they are less likely to vote for Biden because of Harris.

Biden’s unpopularity among Michigan Democratic voters seems to pose a challenge for his campaign. Michigan held its presidential primary election on Feb. 27, where Biden received just over 81% of votes in the Democratic primary while "uncommitted" votes accounted for approximately 13.25%. As Jim Geraghty of National Review notes, many of these "uncommitted" votes were attributed to Palestinian, Arab-American, and Muslim voters who perceive Biden as being "too supportive of Israel" in its conflict with Hamas.

The survey results suggest that Biden’s stance on Israel could cost him votes from the anti-Israel faction within the Democratic Party. According to the poll, nearly one-fifth — 19%— of Democrats said that Biden’s Israel policy makes them consider not voting for him in the primary — a margin closely reflected in the Democratic primary vote for "uncommitted" or a named candidate other than Biden. As LAW points out, because Biden and Trump are tied in Michigan at present, any Democratic protest votes against Biden in November could potentially swing the state’s 15 electoral votes to Trump.